Saturday 29 June 2019

2019年1月~6月文章目录

每个月的最后一天都会做个目录，方便自己也方便大家~
2019年6月：
我的2019年上半年投资成绩
不喜欢学习关于投资的人
PANAMY最新季度业绩
AEON股东大会+最新季度财政报告
2019年5月：
从股票投资中获得影子收入
我的2016年投资成绩
HARTALEGA最新季度财政报告
AEONCR最新季度财政报告
我的2015年投资成绩
2019年4月：
HUPSENG最新年度财政报告
我的投资理论之一--大便论
TOPGLOV最新季度财政报告
2019年3月：
我的2019年第1季度投资回酬
AEON最新季度财政报告
HARTALEGA最新季度财政报告
2019年1月：
AEONCR最新季度财报
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List of articles of January~June 2019

I will make a list of articles every last day of the month,
so that is easier for me and for everyone to refer~
June 2019:
My investment result for 1st half of year 2019
Those who don't like to learn about investment
PANAMY latest financial result
AEON AGM + latest quarter financial result


May 2019:
The PHANTOM INCOME from shares investment
My investment return for year 2016
HARTALEGA latest financial report
AEONCR latest quarter financial report
My investment return for year 2015


April 2019:
HUPSENG latest annual report
One of my investing theorem--"The SHIT Theorem"
TOPGLOV latest quarter financial report
March 2019:
My investment return for 1st quarter 2019
AEON latest quarter financial report
HARTALEGA latest quarter financial report


January 2019:
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我的2019年上半年投资成绩


2019年，
一下子就过去了一半。

 今年上半年的回酬为ROA = 2.03%，ROE = 2.98%，
虽然回酬很低，
但至少扭转了3个月前的负回酬：ROA = -2.35%，ROE = -3.44%。

 接下来对比看看2019年头和6个月后的投资组合：
2019年一开始时，
我的投资组合如下：
1) AEONCR (31%)
2) HARTA (21%)
3) LPI (17%)
4) PANAMY (12%)
5) PBBANK (8%)
6) AEON (7%)
7) NESTLE (4%)

 6个月后，
变成了这个样子：
(变动挺大的，请大家做好心理准备。)
1) AEONCR (34%)
2) HARTA (30%)
3) LPI (18%)
4) NESTLE (5%)
5) TOPGLOV (5%)
6) AEON (7%)
7) PANAMY (1%)

 今次的回酬，
主要是因为AEONCR从RM15.30涨到RM16.80，
可是HARTA却从年头的RM6.14跌到RM5.24，
抵消掉了AEONCR为投资组合带来的涨幅。

 过去3个月，
我提高了债务比例买进了一些跌很多的股票，
如在RM1.53-RM1.54之间买进AEON，
和在RM14.96的价位买进LPI。

 所以目前债务比例是挺高的，
接下来会待公司业绩出炉后卖出一些来降低债务。

 虽说要长期投资，
但长期高债务以长期持有导致长期精神紧张的话，
那又何必呢？

 在这里顺便写下历年的投资成绩：
2011 : ROE = +28.0%
2012 : ROE = +32.8%
2013 : ROE = +15.0%, ROA = +13.3% (开始使用SMF)
2014 : ROE =  -12.0%, ROA =  - 8.0%
2015 : ROE = +21.6%, ROA = +13.3%
2016 : ROE = +38.0%, ROA = +22.2%
2017 : ROE = +40.5%, ROA = +24.9%
2018 : ROE = +16.0%, ROA = +13.3%

 今年2019的口号就是“健健康康地投资”。

 2月时因为身体某部位严重发炎导致住院5天，
虽然出院后缓和下来，
但却没有根治的迹象，
几乎每个月都会复发发炎，
但幸好没严重到要再次住院，
都是拿些抗生素吃个几天就好了(?)。

 几次重复发炎后，
暂时发现说冷饮料和辣的食物真的绝对不能碰，
所以最近红透半边天的SS15奶茶我一滴都没喝过，
更别提很久没吃的Nasi Lemak了。

 虽然我都尽量吃家里的食物，
但有时还是得在外用膳。

 只可惜外食的陷阱真的不少，
例如有些食物广告介绍时连个“辣”字都没提，
酱汁也是白色的，
谁知道吃起来居然是辣的！！

 或者同样的食物，
但在另一间分店却是辣的！！

 我已经连续两个月踩中陷阱导致发炎复发，
所以说外食陷阱真的很多，
特别是马来西亚人无辣不欢。

 目前情况就是发炎时就吃药休息，
身体好转时就拼命运动，
增强体质，
戒冷饮戒辣食，
希望复发的间隔能够越来越长。

 就像投资一样，
长期的抗战~

 投资就是自己思考，自己做决定。

 感谢阅读。
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My investment result for 1st half of year 2019


In the blink of an eye,
half of year 2019 already passed by.

 This year my half year return is ROA = 2.03%, ROE = 2.98%,
even though the return is low,
but at least it turned from negative return into positive return comparing with 3 months ago:
ROA = -2.35%, ROE = -3.44%.

 Let's have a comparison between my investment portfolio at the start of year 2019 and now:
When year 2019 first started,
this was my investment portfolio:
1) AEONCR (31%)
2) HARTA (21%)
3) LPI (17%)
4) PANAMY (12%)
5) PBBANK (8%)
6) AEON (7%)
7) NESTLE (4%)

 After 6 months,
it became like this:
1) AEONCR (34%)
2) HARTA (30%)
3) LPI (18%)
4) NESTLE (5%)
5) TOPGLOV (5%)
6) AEON (7%)
7) PANAMY (1%)

 The main contribution of my return,
is AEONCR which rose from RM15.30 to RM16.80,
sadly that HARTA dropped from RM6.14 to RM5.24,
thus off set most of the returns contributed by AEONCR....

 For the past 3 months,
my debt ratio becomes higher since I bought some shares which dropped a lot,
I bought some AEON shares at RM1.53-RM1.54,
also some LPI shares at RM14.96.

 Thus,
my debt ratio is quite high now,
I will sell some shares after the financial result is out.

 Even though my aim is to invest for long term,
but long term investment with long term high debt ratio,
causing long term mental pressure,
is it really worth it?

 Also,
hereby listing down my investment return for the past few years:
2011 : ROE = +28.0%
2012 : ROE = +32.8%
2013 : ROE = +15.0%, ROA = +13.3% (started using SMF)
2014 : ROE =  -12.0%, ROA =  - 8.0%
2015 : ROE = +21.6%, ROA = +13.3%
2016 : ROE = +38.0%, ROA = +22.2%
2017 : ROE = +40.5%, ROA = +24.9%
2018 : ROE = +16.0%, ROA = +13.3%

 For this year 2019,
my investment slogan will be "invest with a healthy body".

Previous at February I was admitted into hospital for 5 days due to serious inflammation at certain part of my body,
even though I become a lot better now,
but I still cannot 100% recover.

 Almost every month the inflammation will come back,
but luckily it weren't as serious as last time until need to go hospital,
just take a few days of antibiotic medicine then I am okay(?).

 After a few strike back of the inflammation,
I realized that I can't touch any cold drink or spicy food at all.

 So yeah,
I never tasted the famous bubble tea at SS15 area,
and long time never eat Nasi Lemak already...............

 Even though I try my best to eat at home every time,
but sometimes I still have to eat outside.

 Sadly that there are a lot of traps for the food outside,
for example a food that they never mention about "spicy" in the advertisement,
even the sauce is white in colour,
but it is actually spicy!!!

 Or same food but at different branch,
not spicy at branch A but suddenly become spicy at branch B!

 After stepping into all these traps and caused my inflammation to come back,
there are really a lot dangerous food outside,
especially Malaysia where everyone likes spicy food.

 So now whenever inflammation is back,
I will take medicine and rest,
then I will work out when my body feels better,
avoid all cold drinks and spicy food,
hopefully to be healthy again.

 Just like investment,
it will be a long term battle.

 Investment is about doing own thinking, making own decision.

 Thanks for reading.
I don't provide any buying/selling suggestion above,
please make your own investment decision and be responsible with it.


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Saturday 22 June 2019

不喜欢学习关于投资的人


身边的人，
甚至包括自己，
是否一听到投资需要“学习”就觉得头痛？

 或者说得更大范围一点，
是否听到“学习”两个字就觉得头痛？

 现在请大家想象一下“学习”的场景.............
3..............
2.............
1..............

 如果你所想象的“学习”场景是一群人挤在一个小课室里，
呆呆地坐在位置上，
沉闷地听着导师在纸上谈兵，
那么你对“学习”这两个字应该有些误解了。

 对我来说，
上面的情景不是“学习”，
而是“被灌输”！
一种非常“低效率的学习”！

 这就是为什么，
我从不说某人学习不好，
而是被灌输得不好。

 最简单的例子，
就是有些学生明明在校成绩不好，
但在其他方面的学习可是超强的！

 难怪会有这么一句话：
“I NEVER LET MY SCHOOLING INTERFERE MY EDUCATION.”
(我从不让学校影响我的学习。)

 我也曾经听过正确的教育应该要满足以下4点：
1) INSPIRE
2) ENCOURAGE
3) EMPOWER
4) ENLIGHTEN

 INSPIRE，
正确的教育应该要触动到学生的灵魂，
然而大部分的学生却在学校里失去了灵魂。

 ENCOURGAE，
正确的教育应该要让学生有能力克服自己的恐惧和怀疑，
然而大部分的学生却在学校里变得畏首畏尾，
对自己没有信心而怀疑自己。

 EMPOWER，
正确的教育应该要让学生有能力去行动，为改变世界出一份力，
然而大部分的学生却变得不敢行动，
只会抱怨世界而不去改变。

 ENLIGHTEN，
正确的教育应该让学生对世上一切感到好奇，积极地终生学习，
然而很多学生的好奇心却在学校里被抹杀，
完成大学课程拿了张文凭后，
就觉得自己不再需要学习任何知识。

 可能你会说我的孩子在学校里过得很好，
喜爱上学，
每个科目拿A，
完成博士课程，
现在是某某公司的CEO，
领着高薪，
公司还有ESOS，
不用像我们辛辛苦苦地在股市闯荡打拼。

 我只能说恭喜你，
因为你的孩子是上面的20%，
就是那些少数在学校系统里过得很好的一部分。

 但剩下的80%呢？
那些不适合学校系统的呢？
那些不适合如此“被灌输”的学生们呢？
那些不适合“低效率学习”方式的学生们呢？

 我们甚至可以看到数学课本里，
还在说存钱在银行有8%年利率，
一年后会有多少钱？
或者屋子价钱50千马币等这类不符合现实的问题。

 或者只会照本宣科，
叫学生们死背数学方程式，
但连自己也不明白数学方程式来由的所谓教师。

 在如此低效率的学习系统下，
被灌输知识，
难怪人人一听到“学习”就头痛，
甚至痛恨“学习”。

 可惜的是，
所痛恨的........其实是“低效率的学习”，
是EFFECTLESS LEARNING，
“低效率的学习”才是头痛的根源。

 请重新深思一下，
你憎恶的，是“低效率的学习”还是“真正的学习”？
令你真正头痛的，是哪一个？

 谨以此文，
献给一听到投资需要“学习”就觉得头痛的各位。

 感谢阅读。















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Those who don't like to LEARN about investment


What do you feel when someone told you that you need to "LEARN" about investment?

 Do you,
or anyone around you will feel headache when someone mentioned about "LEARNING" how to invest?

 Or in general,
do you feel headache about "LEARNING"?

 Now,
let's imagine a scene about how you "LEARN" something............
3............
2............
1...........

 If in your imagination,
the scene of "LEARNING" is where a bunch of students sitting in a small classroom,
listening to the words of the teacher in front,
but the minds are wandering at somewhere else,
then you may have some misunderstanding about "LEARNING".

 For me,
the scene mentioned above is not "LEARNING",
it is just "INSTALLING",
which is also a "EFFECTLESS LEARNING"

 That's why,
I never say:"You can't learn well."
Instead,
I say:"It didn't install correctly."

 The most obvious example,
are students who do not have good result at school,
but they are able to master some other things very fast!

 No wonder there is a quote saying:
"I NEVER LET MY SCHOOLING INTERFERE MY EDUCATION."

  I learnt before that a REAL EDUCATION should be able to fulfill this 4 missions:
1) INSPIRE
2) ENCOURAGE
3) EMPOWER
4) ENLIGHTEN

 INSPIRE,
REAL EDUCATION should touch the student's spirit,
HOWEVER,
most of the students lost their spirit at school.

 ENCOURAGE,
REAL EDUCATION should help the students to be able to overcome their fear and doubt,
HOWEVER,
most of the students lost confident and started to question, to doubt about themselves at school,
they are DISCOURAGED at school.

 EMPOWER,
REAL EDUCATION should help the students to be able to act and make a difference in the world,
HOWEVER,
most of the students are afraid to act,
and only blaming the world instead of trying to make a change.

 ENLIGHTEN,
REAL EDUCATION should help the students to stay curious and attach to lifelong learning,
HOWEVER,
the curiosity of most of the students are killed at the school,
and they thought their learning has ended after getting a paper of certificate from college or university.

 Oh,
maybe you will say that my children are doing well in school,
they love to go to school,
they receive A for every subject,
they completed their PHD,
they are hired as CEO in multinational company,
their salary is high,
they even receive ESOS from company and do not need to put so much effort to invest at shares market.

 Well,
congratulations to you because your children are the top 20%,
the minority who are able to do well in the school system.

 HOWEVER,
how about the remaining 80%?
How about those who do not do well in the school system?
How about those who do not fit into the current education system?
How about those who is not suitable with the "EFFECTLESS LEARNING"?

 In Maths textbook,
we still can see some questions like how much our money will become after saving at bank for 1 year at the annual interest rate of 8%?
Or how much is the housing price after 25% discount if the original price is RM50,000 ?
The questions which do not match with the reality.

 In school,
there are Maths teachers who do not understand how did the formula come from,
and just telling the students to memorize the formula blindly.....

 By long term going through the process of "EFFECTLESS LEARNING",
no wonder everyone will feel headache when they hear the word "LEARNING",
some even HATE "LEARNING".

 The thing is,
what they are hating...........is the "EFFECTLESS LEARNING",
the true reason of feeling headache is because of "EFFECTLESS LEARNING".

 Please think again,
Which exactly you hate?
"EFFECTLESS LEARNING" or "TRUE LEARNING"?
Which one is making you reluctant to LEARN?

 This article,
is for those who hate and reluctant to LEARN.

 Thanks for reading.
I don't provide any buying/selling suggestion above,
please make your own investment decision and be responsible with it.




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Wednesday 12 June 2019

PANAMY最新季度业绩


今天来看看PANAMY在5月末时释出的业绩：

唉......
退步了.........

没眼看的业绩...........><

 两大业务Home Appliance和Fan products双双失利：

区域方面：

除了本地马来西亚市场，
其他的区域全面下跌，
特别是中东市场尤其严重。

 管理层的发言：

问题主要是在出口市场，
特别是中东方面，
收到美国政策的影响以及分销商有资金流动的问题。

盈利减少的原因，
除了营业额下跌外，
还有马币的上升以及本地销售受到SST的影响。

 对未来的展望：

公司预计中东市场的销售会逐渐恢复，
然后会积极开拓越南和菲律宾市场。

 此外，
也会积极削减成本。

 相信有关注我投资组合的都知道，
我已经卖出很大一部分的PANAMY持股。

 原因嘛.....
就是因为我预计业绩会很难看，
然后股息会因此大大减少。

 没想到，
PANAMY却在股息方面狠狠地打了我的脸：

 居然宣布211sen股息！
所以全年派出了226sen股息！
我开始有点心痛这次漏掉了如此丰厚的股息...............

 季度报告就到此为止，
觉得不详细的话欢迎去Bursa网站下载来看。

 至于PANAMY是不是还值得投资呢？

 投资就是自己思考，自己做决定。

 感谢阅读。



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PANAMY latest financial result


Today I would like to have a look at latest financial result of PANAMY which was released at end of May:

Aiks..........
Worse than last year............

The result was quite bad........><

 Both the Home Appliance and Fan products segment were doing badly:

Geographical segment:

Except Malaysia local market,
other areas were not doing well,
especially the Middle East market.

 Review by the management:

The main problem was export market,
especially Middle East market which affected by trade sanctions imposed by US and liquidity issues faced by a major distributor.

Following the droping of revenue,
reversal of foreign exchange gain and SST effect,
the profit also dropped.

 Outlook by management:

The management expected that Middle East market will slowly recover,
and more efforts will be put into seeking new markets especially Vietnam and Philippines.

 Also,
cost reduction measures are being implemented.

 I believe that for those who followed my investment portfolio,
already know that I sold most of my PANAMY shares.

 Reason?

 I expected that the financial result will be quite bad,
thus the dividend will be greatly reduced.

 Out of my expectation,
PANAMY gave a slap on my face:

211 sen per share!
The dividend for whole year will be 226 sen per share!
I felt sad that I am missing out this generous dividend.............

 That's all for the financial report,
for more details please feel free to download it from BURSA website and read it.

 As for whether PANAMY is worthy to invest or not?

 Investment is about doing own thinking, making own decision.

 Thanks for reading.
I don't provide any buying/selling suggestion above,
please make your own investment decision and be responsible with it.
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Wednesday 5 June 2019

AEON股东大会+最新季度财政报告


2019年的5月30日正是AEON公司的股东大会，
既然是在学校假期，
可以避免塞车，
加上地点是在毗邻高速大道的酒店，
所以我就决定久违地出席股东大会。

 由于刚好在股东大会开始时间时抵达，
所以基本的Door Gift已经派完，
我得到的只有：

话说现在AEON股价是RM1.50左右，
买1 lot是RM150左右，
买了100股去股东大会拿价值RM60的voucher，
其实还挺值的~

 以下是我拍下的一些Slide Show照片和我觉得值得记录的要点：

可以看到过去几年Retail Sales的成长是少过GDP Growth的。
至于要如何解读就看个人了，
是Retail Sales会追上GDP Growth？
还是就一直lagged behind呢？

 或者说，
是人民消费意识低？
还是说零售业者不了解顾客的消费意愿？

 然后Mr Poh先谈零售业务：

AEON的零售业务方面，
Foodline其实是有7.1%的成长。

 零售业务的组成：

根据区域的区分：

 各区域平均的成长：

然后是那些2017年经过装修后，
在2018年重新营业6个月后的业绩：

关于零售业务方面，
MD也有说接下来的重点会是重新装修--REFURBISHMENTS。

 而REFURBISHMENTS的主要目的，
比起提高销售，
更是为了提高盈利，

 AEON在马来西亚已经有一段历史，
AEON商场的平均年龄也来到了13岁，
很多旧商场已经跟不上现代顾客的需求，
所以需要重新装修来迎合需求，
并卖出更多高margin的产品。

 主要关注的两个领域将会是食品和儿童商品。

 管理层也有承认说北部区域的商场表现都不好，
中部区域的旧商场也很多，
还特地提到我从小去到大的AEON Bukit Raja，
说这家AEON在被AEON Bukit Tinggi和AEON Shah Alam的夹击下，
需要多加考虑该如何处置。

 然后是Property Management方面：

就连AEON也只能勉强把Occupancy rate维持在90%上下：

MD有说此部分的盈利下跌有几个因素，
其中一个就是高折旧。

 还有就是租金问题，
以及高能源开销。

 最后还语重心长地说：“The current business environment is uncomfortable.”

 总的来说，
由于接下来的重点是重新装修，
所以CAPEX花费会比较少，
新商场的开设会暂缓下来，
并多开设Daiso和AEON Wellness：

还有2019下半年的重头戏：


股东大会同一天闭市后，
AEON最新季报就出炉了。

 有注意我的投资组合的，
就应该知道我之前已卖光AEON，
只留下100股出席股东大会。

 卖出的原因，
是因为AEON Nilai开张，
而通常新商场开张都会有一笔大开销，
所以我认为这一次的业绩会比较难看。

 结果............
我被AEON狠狠地打脸了：

很痛一下.........

 不过再继续看下去，
才发现是因为今年会计准则有所改变：

不管怎样，
业绩跟我预料的倒转，
反而有所进步。

 第一季的零售和产业管理业务的营业额都有所进步，
多亏于装修好了的商场和新开张的商场：

零售业务的盈利表现良好：


 反观产业管理方面却因为租金和折旧而有所逊色。

 最后是公司对未来的展望：

总结一句话，
就是充满挑战性。

 综观AEON的股价，
已经跌到我刚踏入股市一、两年的价位，
7年前的AEON是这个股价，
7年后的AEON也是这个股价。

 值不值得投资呢？

 投资就是自己思考，自己做决定。

 感谢阅读。
















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