大提琴家的股市投资笔记 / The Cellist's Share Investment Note: 2019

Tuesday, 31 December 2019

2019年1月~12月文章目录

每个月的最后一天都会做个目录，方便自己也方便大家~

2019年12月：
我的2019年投资成绩
ALLIANZ最新年度报告和季度报告
ELKDESA最新年度报告和季度报告

2019年11月：
TOPGLOV最新年度财政报告
2019年篇：长期投资的后果
STMKB最新年度财政报告和季度报告

2019年10月：
AJINOMOTO最新季度财政报告
AEONCR最新季度财政报告
我的2019年第3季度投资成绩

2019年9月：
何谓财务教育(3)：学习金钱的语言

2019年8月：
PANAMY最新年度财政报告
HARTALEGA最新年报和季度业绩

2019年7月：
何谓财务教育(2) : 精明地选择导师
何谓财务教育(1) : 态度
TOPGLOV 最新季度业绩
AEONCR股东大会2019+最新季度业绩

2019年6月：
我的2019年上半年投资成绩
不喜欢学习关于投资的人
PANAMY最新季度业绩
AEON股东大会+最新季度财政报告

2019年5月：
从股票投资中获得影子收入
我的2016年投资成绩
HARTALEGA最新季度财政报告
AEONCR最新季度财政报告
我的2015年投资成绩

2019年4月：
HUPSENG最新年度财政报告
我的投资理论之一--大便论
TOPGLOV最新季度财政报告

2019年3月：
我的2019年第1季度投资回酬
AEON最新季度财政报告
HARTALEGA最新季度财政报告

2019年1月：
AEONCR最新季度财报

List of articles of January~December 2019

AEONCR latest financial report

充满动荡起伏的一年就这么地过去了，
今年的投资回酬呢，ROA为-2.2%，ROE为-3.2%。

自从2014年的负回酬过后，
今年再度负回酬，
不过心情却不是很失落，
这一点就等下再细写好了。

接下来对比看看2019年头和年尾的投资组合，
2019年一开始时，
我的投资组合如下：
1) AEONCR (31%)
2) HARTA (21%)
3) LPI (17%)
4) PANAMY (12%)
5) PBBANK (8%)
6) AEON (7%)
7) NESTLE (4%)

2019年年尾时：
1) HARTA (26%)
2) AEONCR (20%)
3) LPI (14%)
4) ALLIANZ (13%)
5) STMKB (11%)
6) AEON (8%)
7) NESTLE (6%)
8) PANAMY (2%)

今年的负回酬，
多亏了以下这三家公司：
LPI从RM15.74跌到RM15.10，降幅为-4.1%。
AEONCR从RM15.30跌到RM14.14，降幅为-8.2%。
HARTA从RM6.14跌到RM5.48，降幅为-10.8%。

以上的三家公司，
就占了我投资组合接近70%，
加上我有SMF杠杆，
放大了负回酬，
分分钟就像2014年亏损超过10%也不出奇，
但幸好我有做些买卖，
才成功把亏损压低-3.2%。

当中，
我把一些AEONCR卖在最高RM16.70，
一些LPI卖在最高RM16.58，
一些AEON卖在最高RM1.76，
然后把全部PBBANK卖在RM24.66。

此外，
我也趁HARTA跌到RM4.55时买了一些。

年尾时，
我也在RM13.80到RM14.84之间的价位累积ALLIANZ，
也算带来了不错的回酬~

在这里顺便写下历年的投资成绩：
2011 : ROE = +28.0%
2012 : ROE = +32.8%
2013 : ROE = +15.0%, ROA = +13.3% (开始使用SMF)
2014 : ROE = -12.0%, ROA = - 8.0%
2015 : ROE = +21.6%, ROA = +13.3%
2016 : ROE = +38.0%, ROA = +22.2%
2017 : ROE = +40.5%, ROA = +24.9%
2018 : ROE = +16.0%, ROA = +13.3%
2019 : ROE = - 3.2% , ROA = - 2.2%

如果2011年当初我有一百万，
那么经过9年的投资后，
会成长至455万左右，
年复利为18.3%.

以上就是今年的投资成绩总结。

当时2014年的负回酬过后，
我就迎来了连续4年的正回酬，
这就是为什么一开始我说虽然负回酬但心情不是很低落的原因，
特别是现在很多股票已经跌到挺吸引人的价位。

所以！
2020年的投资口号就是“充满信心并大胆地小心投资”！

投资就是自己思考，自己做决定。

感谢阅读。

以上言论没有任何买卖建议，
大家买卖自负。

My investment return for year 2019

2019,
a year full with happiness and sadness almost come to an end,
this year,
my investment return: ROA is -2.2%, ROE is -3.2%.

Here I am again for getting a negative return after year 2014,
but somehow I don't feel too sad,
I will talk the reason later.

Below is the comparison of my investment portfolio at the start and end of year 2019:

Start of year 2019:
1) AEONCR (31%)
2) HARTA (21%)
3) LPI (17%)
4) PANAMY (12%)
5) PBBANK (8%)
6) AEON (7%)
7) NESTLE (4%)

End of year 2019:
1) HARTA (26%)
2) AEONCR (20%)
3) LPI (14%)
4) ALLIANZ (13%)
5) STMKB (11%)
6) AEON (8%)
7) NESTLE (6%)
8) PANAMY (2%)

This year my NEGATIVE investment return were mainly contributed by the below 3 companies:
LPI which dropped from RM15.74 until RM15.10, the return is -4.1%.
AEONCR which dropped from RM15.30 until RM14.14, the return is -8.2%.
HARTA which dropped from RM6.14 until RM5.48, the return is -10.8%.

The above mentioned companies already took up around 70% of my portfolio,
some more I am using SMF leverage and magnified my negative return,
I almost become like year 2014 to have a return of worse than -10%,
but luckily I did some buy and sell,
thus successfully reduced my negative return to -3.2%.

For the selling,
I sold some AEONCR at highest price RM16.70,
some LPI at highest price RM16.58,
some AEON at highest price RM1.76,
and I sold all PBBANK at RM24.66.

For the buying,
I bought some HARTA when it dropped until RM4.55.

At almost the end of year 2019,
I started to accumulate ALLIANZ between RM13.80 to RM14.84,
which brought me some good return as well~

Anyway,
My investment return for the past few years:
2011 : ROE = +28.0%
2012 : ROE = +32.8%
2013 : ROE = +15.0%, ROA = +13.3% (started using SMF)
2014 : ROE = -12.0%, ROA = - 8.0%
2015 : ROE = +21.6%, ROA = +13.3%
2016 : ROE = +38.0%, ROA = +22.2%
2017 : ROE = +40.5%, ROA = +24.9%
2018 : ROE = +16.0%, ROA = +13.3%
2019 : ROE = -2.2% , ROA = -3.2%

If I have 1 million at the start of year 2011,
after 9 years of investment,
it would have grown into around 4.55million,
annual compound interest is 18.3%.

That's all for the conclusion of my investment return for year.

Last time after having negative return at year 2014,
I had positive return for the next 4 years,
that's why at first I mentioned that I am not feeling very sad,
especially now shares price of some companies already dropped until quite attractive price.

THUS!
my slogan for year 2020 will be "TO CAREFULLY INVEST WITH CONFIDENT AND BRAVERY"!

Investment is about doing own thinking, making own decision.

Thanks for reading.

I don't provide any buying/selling suggestion above,
please make your own investment decision and be responsible with it.

Recent articles :
ALLIANZ latest annual report & quarter report
ELKDESA latest annual report & quarter report
TOPGLOV latest annual report
2019 Version: The Consequence Of Long Term Investing
STMKB latest annual & quarter financial report

Tuesday, 24 December 2019

ALLIANZ最新年度报告和季度财政报告

今天来看看另一家出名的保险公司：

首先，
先看过去5年的表现：

其实成长只能算是普通而已，
不过盈利方面却有惊艳之处：

股息也因此水涨船高：

公司的保险生意主要分成两大业务：

也就是General Insurance和Life Insurance。

先来看看General Insurance方面的表现：

GWP的减少，
是因为与CIMB bancassurance的partnership到期，
但还是能够做到盈利增加。

根据上面所述，
公司是General Insurance市场的领头羊，
市占为11.8%。

而且如果不算与CIMB bancassurance的partnership，
其实GWP成长了6.7%。

当中，
Motor方面的Insurance就占了63.4%：

当然，
今年盈利增加那么多的另一个原因，
是去年有一次性的impairment。

接下来看看Life Insurance方面：

成长很不错一下。

根据上面所述，
在本地Life Insurance的市占为8.4%。

对未来的展望：

上面提到的第一项Profitable growth真是深得我心~~~
特别是今年我重点投资的公司都有growth但profit却倒退.......

那么公司是不是真的越来越进步呢？

接下来看看最新的季度财政报告：

还算进步得不错。

再继续看下去。

然后最后的盈利方面：

盈利进步了许多，
果然公司做到了profitable growth。

再来看对今年的展望：

General Insurance方面处于弱势当中，
至于Life Insurance方面：

有提到说Life Insurance的成长在2019年最后一季会放缓。

以上就是本次关于ALLIANZ最新年度和季度财政报告的要点，
若你觉得有所不足的话，
欢迎到BURSA网站自己下载一份来细读。

至于ALLIANZ值不值得投资呢？

就像我以前说过的，
一切得看2021年开始实施的MFRS17会计准则。

投资就是自己思考，自己做决定。

感谢阅读。

以上言论没有任何买卖建议，
大家买卖自负。

ALLIANZ Latest Annual Report & Quarter Report

Today let's have a look at another famous insurance company:

First of all,
let's read the past 5 years performance:

The growth looked okay only,
but there is surprise at the profit:

Even the dividend also came with a surprise:

The insurance business of the company can be divided into two main segment:

The General Insurance and the Life Insurance.

Let's look at the performance of General Insurance segment first:

The reduction of GWP was because of the expiration with CIMB bancassurance partnership,
but the company still able to grow the profit.

According to above,
the company is the market leader of General Insurance,
the market shares is 11.8%.

If excluding the CIMB bancassurance partnership,
the GWP grew by 6.7% actually.

Among that,
Motor insurance consists of 63.4%:

Also,
the profit looked like increased a lot was because there was an one off impact of impairment at the year before.

Next,
let's look at the Life Insurance segment:

The growth seems not bad.

According to above,
the market shares is 8.4%.

For the year ahead:

The PROFITABLE GROWTH really captured my heart~~~
Especially this year the companies I invested all had growth but decreased profit...........

So did the company did as what they said?

Let's read the latest quarter financial report:

The growth looks okay.

Let's continue:

Lastly,
the profit:

The profit improved a lot,
profitable growth as what the management mentioned in the annual report.

The current year prospect:

The general insurance industry growth remains weak,
as for life insurance industry:

It was mentioned that the growth rate of life insurance will be soften for the last quarter of 2019.

That's all for the important points of latest annual report and quarter report,
if you feel like something is lacking,
feel free to go to BURSA website to download and read it.

As for is it worthy to invest at ALLIANZ?

Like what I said before,
it depends on what will happen after applying the new MFRS17 accounting standard at year 2021.

Investment is about doing own thinking, making own decision.

Thanks for reading.

I don't provide any buying/selling suggestion above,

please make your own investment decision and be responsible with it.

Recent articles :
ELKDESA latest annual report & quarter report
TOPGLOV latest annual report
2019 Version: The Consequence Of Long Term Investing
STMKB latest annual & quarter financial report
AJINOMOTO latest quarter financial report

Tuesday, 3 December 2019

ELKDESA最新年度报告和季度报告

今天也来继续《外面野花比较香》系列，
所要看的公司是这一家：

有些人可能不清楚这家公司是做什么的，
所以先来简单介绍一下。

公司主要的业务是Hire purchase financing for used motor vehicles，
以及selling general insurance policies as an insurance agent。

简单来说，
就是提供贷款给二手车买家并顺便卖保险给他们~

然后公司也有涉及business of trading and wholesaling of home furniture，
也就是家具生意：

接下来看看每个年报都会有的过去5年财政记录：

节节上升的营业额和盈利，
我居然现在才注意到这家公司..............

而且公司的股息也挺慷慨的：

而且NPL也逐年下降：

公司主要是提供小额二手车贷款：

公司卖的保险是Tokio Marine保险公司和Berjaya Sompo保险公司。

这个二手车贷款业务贡献了98%的盈利：

也就是说家具业务只是个很小很小的业务而已。

目前公司员工人数只有195人：

由于是小额贷款，
所以客户层广阔，
若有几个客户违约还不了钱也不会造成很大的损失。

目前公司共有38,500位客户，
平均每个客户的贷款是RM13,000：

过去两年，
公司提高贷款上限至RM35,000以包括更多的有名车款。

公司对未来的展望还是挺正面的：

理由是小额的二手车贷款比较少竞争对手，
而且公司的市场份额算是比较低，
还有成长空间。

最后说有信心来年的业绩会更好：

那么是不是真的业绩更好？
公司有没有说到做到呢？

就让我们来看看最新出炉的季度报告：

过去6个月，
营业额增加了20%，
盈利则增加了13%。

还真的说到做到~

以上就是本次关于ELKDESA最新年度和季度财政报告的要点，
若你觉得有所不足的话，
欢迎到BURSA网站自己下载一份来细读。

ELKDESA的持续成长和慷慨派息，
是吸引人投资的要点。

但以我投资了AEONCR这么多年的经验来看，
市场一直都不给脸这种涉及贷款业务的公司，
所以不能期待说市场会突然给予高PE的待遇。

值不值得投资，
就见仁见智了。

投资就是自己思考，自己做决定。

感谢阅读。

以上言论没有任何买卖建议，
大家买卖自负。

ELKDESA Latest Annual Report & Quarter Report

Since the companies in my portfolio is not performing lately,
so I decided to open my eyes for other companies,
and today I would like to write about this company:

Maybe some of you don't know about this company,
so I will do a brief introduction.

The company is involved in hire purchase financing for used motor vehicles,
and selling general insurance policies as an insurance agent.

Well,
basically the company is providing loan for buyers of used motor vehicles and at the same time selling insurance to the buyers~

The company also involved at business of trading and wholesaling of home furniture:

Next,
let's have a look at the past 5 years financial record:

The revenue and profit rose every year,
why now only I saw this company.................

The company also quite generous of the dividend:

The NPL ratio also decreased year by year:

The company mainly involved in small value financing:

The insurance products sold by the company are mainly from Tokio Marine and Berjaya Sompo.

The hire purchase financing contributing 98% of the profit:

Which meant that the furniture business is still a very very small business.

The company currently have 195 employees:

The company relies on broad hirer base as a strategy to reduce its credit risk.

The company has hirer base of approximately 38,500 individuals,
and the net hire purchase receivables per hirer is around RM13,000:

For the past two years,
the company increased the maximum loan size to RM35,000 to include a larger range of popular vehicle models.

The management is feeling positive at the future of the company:

The management think that their niche in used-car segment remains underserved,
and the market share is still small.

The management is confident that next year will be better:

So is it really better?
Did the management achieved a better result like what they said?

Let's look at the latest quarter financial report:

For the past 6 months,
the revenue grew by 20% while the profit grew by 13%.

The management did what they said~

That's all for the important points of latest annual report and quarter report,
if you feel like something is lacking,
feel free to go to BURSA website to download and read it.

The continuing growth of business and the generous dividend,
are what I found attractive from ELKDESA.

HOWEVER,
after investing at AEONCR for few years,
I realized that the market don't like companies that involving in financing business,
so we can't expect that the market will suddenly reward high PE.

Investment is about doing own thinking, making own decision.

Thanks for reading.

I don't provide any buying/selling suggestion above,

please make your own investment decision and be responsible with it.

Recent articles :
TOPGLOV latest annual report
2019 Version: The Consequence Of Long Term Investing
STMKB latest annual & quarter financial report
AJINOMOTO latest quarter financial report
AEONCR latest quarter financal report

大提琴家的股市投资笔记 / The Cellist's Share Investment Note

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