Monday 30 April 2018

2018年1月~4月文章目录


每个月的最后一天都会做个目录，方便自己也方便大家~


2018年4月：
OFI 2018年第3季度财政报告
COCOLAND 2017年第4季度财政报告
小刀锯大树
NESTLE 2017年度财政报告
PBBANK的海外业务
我面对大选的投资策略
我的2018年第1季度投资回酬


2018年3月：
造神论
AEON 2017年第4季度财政报告
我的2012年投资成绩
PANAMY 2018年第3季度财政报告
一股致富！


2018年2月：
NESTLE 2017年第4季度财政报告
HUPSENG 2017年第4季度财政报告
F&N 2018年第1季度财政报告
HARTALEGA 2018年第3季度财政报告
我如何解释我的投资
在股票投资上ALL IN


2018年1月：
股价上涨的要素
OFI 2018年第2季度财政报告
其实我讨厌红股与拆细
F&N 2017年度财政报告
我的投资回酬计算方式(ROE & ROA)
我的2017年投资成绩




我的脸书专页
我的推特：@TheCellist86
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List of articles of January~April 2018


I will make a list of articles every last day of the month,
so that is easier for me and for everyone to refer~
April 2018:
OFI 3rd quarter 2018 financial report
COCOLAND 4th quarter 2017 financial report
Cutting down trees by using a small knife
NESTLE annual report 2017
Oversea business of PBBANK
My investment strategy for upcoming General Election
My investment return for 1st quarter 2018


March 2018:
Human tendency and idolization
AEON 4th quarter 2017 financial report
My investment return for year 2012
PANAMY 3rd quarter 2018 financial report
Diversification VS Focused Investing


February 2018:
NESTLE 4th quarter 2017 financial report
HUPSENG 4th quarter 2018 financial report
F&N 1st quarter 2018 financial report
HARTALEGA 3rd Quarter 2018 Financial Report
How did I explain my investment
ALL IN!!! At shares investment


January 2018:
Important factors of share price rising
OFI 2nd Quarter 2018 Financial Report
Actually I don't like Bonus Issue & Share Split
F&N Annual Report 2017
How I calculated my investment return(ROA & ROE)
My investment return for year 2017
My Twitter : @TheCellist86
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Sunday 29 April 2018

OFI 2018年第3季度财政报告


今天继续来追踪这个我挺感兴趣的零食公司--OFI。

 首先来看看2月尾出炉的最新业绩：
嗯......
营业额不错，有进步。
但成本也跟着上涨..........
结果Gross profit不进反退............

 再继续看下去：

各种各样高企的费用，
结果盈利惨跌..........

 然后大家还记得之前公司花一大笔钱，
来提升机械设备吗？
花在那方面的费用比起前一年少了一倍，
公司在现金流失方面可以说是暂时可以喘一口气了吧............
两年的时间，
公司从拥有充沛的现金到现在只剩下那笔借来的钱...................

 其实营业额方面还是挺不错的：

 这就像你看着蛋糕越来越大，
但就是吃不到那种感觉................

 公司的发言：
新的产品线几时才会开始运作呢？

 每次我去霸市，都会特地注意看有没有新的产品，
但每次都是失望而归。

 话说股息方面：

股息是0.5sen，去年是1.0sen，
足足少了一半。

 也难怪，
在这么严峻的情况下，
是很难保持一样的派息额了。

 究竟这家公司未来会有怎样的发展呢？
虽然我目前并没有持有OFI的股票，
但我却一直关注，
总觉得这会是一个很有趣的case study。

 投资就是自己思考，自己做决定。

 感谢阅读。








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OFI 3rd quarter 2018 financial report


Today let's continue the follow up of the snack company--OFI.

 First let's have a look at the latest financial result which released at end of February:
Hmmm....
Revenue not bad, got some improvements,
but........
the cost of sales also rose,
at the end the gross profit was lowered...........

 And then:

All the high expenses caused the profit to be lower..............

 Anyone still remember that OFI spent a lot of money to acquire new machines?

The money spent on purchasing property, plant and equipment was a lot less than year 2016,
Phew.......
the company finally can be little more relieved from the losing of cash.....
In two years time,
the company changed from a cash rich company to now only have the money which borrowed............

 Well,
actually the revenue was not bad at all:

It just felt like.............
The cake kept growing bigger and bigger,
but we just couldn't taste it............

 The prospects from the company:
When will the new product lines start contributing?

 Every time I went to supermarket,
I always checked whether there is any new products by OFI,
and the result was NONE...........

 By the way,
the dividend:

The proposed dividend is 0.5sen,
last year same quarter was 1.0sen,
reduced by 50%..........

 Of course,
the company is having hard time,
so is hard to maintain the payout of dividend.

 What will happen to OFI at the future?

 Even though I do not own any OFI shares currently,
but I always pay attention to it.
For me,
I think this company will be a very interesting case study~

 Investment is about doing own thinking, making own decision.

 Thanks for reading.
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Wednesday 25 April 2018

COCOLAND 2017年第4季度财政报告


今天继续看看糖果公司COCOLAND~

 2017年的业绩比起2016年的业绩真的难看很多............
虽然业绩难看，
但却有小惊喜。

 什么小惊喜？
下面将会提到~

 来看看营业额的区域分布：

 就像我在2017年12月14日发表过的关于第3季度财政报告文章里所说，
问题是在本地市场和中东市场。

业绩方面都是因为beverage和hard candy产品方面下滑所致，
幸好有gummy和chocolate产品帮忙弥补。

跟上一季写的东西差不多一样，
重点其实都一样，但文法有所不同，
看来写报告的是英文高手，
可以看得出对方在尽力避免copy and paste上一季的文章。
（有些公司的季报几乎都是copy & paste 前一季的，
有些连年报几乎都是copy & paste 上一年的...........）
看来公司接下来的重点会放在East Asia和ASEAN区域。
2018年继续加油！

 再来看看漂亮的Cashflow Statement:

为什么我会说漂亮呢？
因为公司没有任何债务，
而且现金越来越多~

就像上次我所期望的，也是刚才所指的小惊喜：

 还真的增加了派息，
从10sen提升到13sen，
增幅30%~

 不过不能太过高兴，
毕竟实际业绩下跌......

 究竟COCOLAND在2018年又会有怎样的表现呢？
就让我们拭目以待吧！

 投资就是自己思考，自己做决定。

 感谢阅读。



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COCOLAND 4th quarter 2017 financial report


Again today let's have a look at the financial report of COCOLAND for 4th quarter year 2017~

Overall,
the financial result for year 2017 was obviously worse than year 2016,
however,
there was a small surprise.

 What surprise?
Please continue to read~

 Let's look at the regional result first:

 Like what I mentioned in previous article about COCOLAND 3rd quarter result at 14th December year 2017,
the problem was local market and Middle East market.

The lower revenue were mainly because of weak demand for beverage and hard candy products,
luckily the gummy and chocolate products helped partially offset it.
Almost the same as what written in 3rd quarter report.
Well....
actually the main points are all the same,
but in different grammar formats,
seems like the one who wrote this is very good in English,
and able to prevent the article looked like copy & paste from previous quarter.
(There are some companies which the quarter reports were exactly copy and paste from previous quater, some even copy & paste from previous annual report........)

Seems like COCOLAND will focus more on East Asia and ASEAN regions this year.
Please do well at year 2018!!

 Also,
let's have a look at the beautiful Cashflow Statement:
Why is it beautiful?
This is because the company has no borrowings and is having more and more cash~

 Okay,
the small surprise I mentioned above:

Just like what I wished for, COCOLAND did increase the dividend,
from 10sen increased to 13sen,
30% increment~

 However,
the actual financial result was dropping so better don't get too happy with the dividend.........

 That's all for the financial result of COCOLAND for year 2017,
Let's see whether will COCOLAND performs better in year 2018 or not.

 Investment is about doing own thinking, making own decision.

 Thanks for reading.

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Saturday 21 April 2018

小刀锯大树


今天来回顾一下我在2013年写过的投资短文，
并且加上最新的注解。

 旧文开始：
有些人只是拿着一把小刀，
却想要砍倒一棵粗壮的大树，
然后辛辛苦苦地一边砍一边研究，
怎样施力？
从哪个角度砍最有效？
是不是需要24小时不停地砍？

 其实.........
想办法拿到一把锋利的斧头更好。

 这样的话，
才能更快且更有效地砍倒大树。
面对熊市的关键在于，
当大熊来时，
我们是拿着什么来面对？

 是小刀？
是斧头？
是手枪？
冲锋枪？
手榴弹？
核子弹？
此外
经验也是一个关键。

 当大熊出现在你面前时，
就算你手中有威力强大的手榴弹，
但因为很少练习丢出去，
所以手一直在发抖，
丢不出去，
结果仍是死在大熊的手中。

 相反的，
由于平时都有练习开枪，
就算大熊突然出现，
也不会惊慌失措，
而是果敢地开枪扫射，
并且百发百中，
击败了大熊。

 所以，
经验也是关键之一。

 当然，
经验丰富的强力武器拥有者才是真真正正的高手。
旧文结束。
整篇文章其实都在用比喻手法。

 那么一开始的小刀锯大树，
小刀指的是什么？
大树指的又是什么呢？

 相信很多人都猜到，
小刀其实是指收入很低，
大树就是很多很多的钱。

 简单来说，
收入很低的人，
每个月只能存个两、三百块当投资资本，
却想要在股市里赚个百万或千万，
基本上就是在用小刀锯大树。

 与其花时间研究股票，
倒不如花时间提高收入或得到更多的投资资本，
让自己的小刀变成斧头，
才能更快地砍倒大树。

 我以前大学毕业，刚踏入股市不久就领会这个道理。
这就是为什么我不去打工，
因为打工的薪水就像牙签，
我要到何年何月才能用牙签锯倒一棵大树呢？

 然后经验也是个关键。

 就算你准备了上千万的资金，
但没有任何投资经验，
那么也是很危险。

 熊市时买入股票，
股价跌后，害怕而卖出，
之后又买入，然后股价继续跌又卖出，
没经验的人，就算有雄厚的资本，
也会被耗得一干二净。

 最惨的，就是熊市买烂股了。

 熊市几时来？
我不是神，我不知道。

 最重要的，
就像之前在2018年4月6日发表过的《我面对大选的投资策略》文章里所说，
要有计划。

 要计划好，
熊市来的话，我会怎样怎样........
熊市不来的话，我又会怎样怎样...........

 而不是残缺的计划如：
熊市不来的话，我就ALL IN投资，能赚就赚。
熊市来的话，我就哭爹喊娘，大喊：妈妈，救命啊~

 或者另一种残缺的计划：
熊市来的话，我已经准备好资金大举买入。
熊市不来的话，我就每天等着熊市的到来，每天问人，熊市来了吗？
等了10年，身边许多人都靠股票致富了，还在等.......

 想好好，计划好，
才来投资。

 投资就是自己思考，自己做决定。

 感谢阅读。




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Cutting down trees by using a small knife


Today I would like to review an old article that I wrote at year 2013,
and add some new ideas.

 Old article starts here:
Some people only own a small knife,
but still wants to use it to cut down a tree.
So they tried very hard to cut the down,
and put into a lot of times in studying the best way to cut a tree,
how much strength should I use?
Which angle should I cut?
Is it that I need to continuously cutting it 24 hours no rest?

 Actually................
the best way is to find a sharp axe,
then only can cut down the free faster and more efficiently.

 The key of facing a bear market,
is when it comes,
what will you be holding in your hand to face it?

 A small knife?
An axe?
A gun?
A pistol?
A submachine gun?
A Grenade?
A nuclear bomb?

 Not only that,
experience also plays an important role at facing bear market.

 If you are lack of experience,
even though you have a grenade in your hand when the bear appears in front of you,
but your hand keeps shaking and not dare to throw the grenade because you are lack of practice,
you can't survive the attack from the bear.

 However,
if you have a lot of experience and always practice how to shoot,
even though the bear appears suddenly in front of you,
you will not panic and just take out your gun to shoot the bear,
and kill the bear.

 That's why I think experience is important too.

 Someone with strong weapon and a lot of experience is the best.

 End of old article.
So.........
what exactly is the small knife?
How about the tree?

 I think a lot of people already figured out,
small knife meant low income,
tree meant a lot of money.

 Basically,
if the income is too low,
every month can only save two to three hundred dollars to invest,
but hoping to earn million of dollars in shares market,
is equal to try to cut  down a tree by using a small knife.

 Instead of spending most of the time in studying shares investment,
is better to spend those times in trying to increase the income or getting more investment capital,
throw the small knife and get an axe,
then can cut down the tree quicker.

 I learnt this not long after graduating from university,
that's why I never go to get a job,
for me the job salary is like a toothpick,
how many years and months I need to cut down a tree by using toothpick?

 Then investing experience is important too.

 Even though you have million of dollars,
but having a lot of money doesn't mean you automatically become a good investor.

 Let's say you bought a shares during bear market,
the shares price dropped again, and you sold it because you are scare.
Then you buy again, and sell again when it drops,
again and again,
you will end up losing all the money no matter how many money you have.

 The worst case?
Buying the worst company shares during bear market.

 So when will the bear market comes?

 I DON'T KNOW, I AM NOT GOD.

 Like what I mentioned in my article <<My investment strategy for upcoming General Election>> which published at 6th April 2018,
The important thing is to HAVE A PLAN.

 Plan well.
If bear market does comes, I will bla bla bla............
If bear market doesn't comes, I will bla bla bla..............

 I will show you some bad planning:
1)If bear doesn't comes, I will ALL IN in shares market, earn as much as I can.
If bear does comes, I will cry and complain everyday, then go find my mum for help.

 2)If bear does comes, I will use all the money I prepared to buy all the shares of good companies.
If bear doesn't comes, I will just keep on waiting, and ask people everyday the same question: Is the bear coming?
Wait for 10 years, all the people around me already gotten rich by investing in shares, and I am still waiting...........

 Those are the bad plannings in my opinion~

 Anyway,
think carefully, plan carefully,
then only invest.

 Investment is about doing own thinking, making own decision.

 Thanks for reading.
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Monday 16 April 2018

NESTLE 2017年度财政报告


先声明一下，
这里即将写下的东西，都只是一些我看重的重点，
并非全面性地概括整份年报，
所以难免会有遗漏，
如果真的有心想投资的话，
最好自己去看年报~

 打开年报，
首先看到的就是年年进步的成绩，
不过进步幅度就...............

关于全年业绩的公司发言：
我自己看到的重点是本地营业额成长4.1%,
出口成长3%。

 出口的增加，有赖于NESTLE其他国家子公司的成长，
特别是东南亚区域~
这里主要提到新产品是公司成长的主要动力。
什么新产品？
请看上面的英文段落。

公司的发展策略是FIT。
Fuel to Grow, Innovate to Grow, Transform to Grow。


 当然公司也不会放过网上市场，
上面提到说e-Commerce的生意增加了250%。

 NESTLE公司也很鼓励员工们提出意见：

 难怪每年都有能力推出新产品~

 NESTLE的产品方面，
MILO没什么重点需要记下，
Maggi方面：

 新推出的MAGGI HOT MEALZ看来挺成功的，
也推出越来越多的口味。

 除此以外：
看来公司也挺注重OATMEE的。

 MAGGI CUKUPRASA看来也卖得不错。

 NESCAFE方面：

 NESCAFE Latte Hazelnut看来有销量，
得空我也要买一包尝尝看了~

 Confectionary方面：
2017年的重头戏就是KIT KAT Mini了，
有3种口味：Caramel, Mocha 和 Cookies & Cream。
除了Caramel，
其他两种口味我都吃过，
而且真的很好吃，
但问题是有点小贵...........

 目前的KIT KAT巧克力都是在Chembong, Negeri Sembilan那里的工厂生产的。

 NESTUM方面：
省时、快捷又方面的Cereal drink看来反应不错，
有机会的话，
我也要买一罐喝喝看。

 Ready-to-Drink方面：
说来还真讽刺。
F&N和COCOLAND的财政报告都说饮料越来越难卖，
而这一边，
NESTLE却说RTD饮料的MILO和NESCAFE是成长最快的领域之一~~~

 冰淇淋方面：
MATKOOL原来是本地的No.1 kids' brand。
上面提到说CERELAC，LACTOKID和NANKID都发展的很好。

 以上就是我自己比较看重的重点，
看完NESTLE的年报，
就跟看完F&N的年报一样，
都会信心暴涨，想要立刻加码。

 不过股价RM150左右.............
得斟酌斟酌很久才行.........

 目前看来，
NESTLE除了3大王牌产品：MILO、MAGGI和NESCAFE，
也在积极发展其他的产品，

 未来，可能就不只有3大王牌而已了~

 问题是股价RM150左右.............
得斟酌斟酌很久才行.........

 最近走过超市，
还发现KIT KAT又推出新口味--红豆绿茶口味。

 投资这种积极推出新产品的公司，
还是投资那种不推出新产品，
每次只是花大钱换产品包装的公司？

 投资就是自己思考，自己做决定。

 感谢阅读。



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