Saturday 30 June 2018

2018年1月~6月文章目录

每个月的最后一天都会做个目录，方便自己也方便大家~


2018年6月：
我的2018年上半年投资成绩
AEONCR 2018年股东大会
为了获胜 VS 避免失败 Part.2
COCOLAND 2017年度财政报告
为了获胜 VS 避免失败
向作家之路又迈进了一步


2018年5月：
AEON 2017年度财政报告+2018第1季度财政报告
最近的心情..........
大选之后的第一个股票交易日
HUPSENG 2017 年度财政报告
一个大家都忽略了的买股成本


2018年4月：
OFI 2018年第3季度财政报告
COCOLAND 2017年第4季度财政报告
小刀锯大树
NESTLE 2017年度财政报告
PBBANK的海外业务
我面对大选的投资策略
我的2018年第1季度投资回酬


2018年3月：
造神论
AEON 2017年第4季度财政报告
我的2012年投资成绩
PANAMY 2018年第3季度财政报告
一股致富！


2018年2月：
NESTLE 2017年第4季度财政报告
HUPSENG 2017年第4季度财政报告
F&N 2018年第1季度财政报告
HARTALEGA 2018年第3季度财政报告
我如何解释我的投资
在股票投资上ALL IN


2018年1月：
股价上涨的要素
OFI 2018年第2季度财政报告
其实我讨厌红股与拆细
F&N 2017年度财政报告
我的投资回酬计算方式(ROE & ROA)
我的2017年投资成绩




我的脸书专页
我的推特：@TheCellist86
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List of articles of January~June 2018


I will make a list of articles every last day of the month,
so that is easier for me and for everyone to refer~
June 2018:
My investment return for 1st half of 2018
AEONCR AGM 2018
To win or not to lose part2
COCOLAND annual report 2017
To win or not to lose
A step closer for becoming a writer


May 2018:
AEON 2017 annual report + 1st quarter 2018 financial report
Some thoughts lately........
The 1st shares trading day after G.E.
HUPSENG annual report 2017
The cost of investment is much higher than we thought


April 2018:
OFI 3rd quarter 2018 financial report
COCOLAND 4th quarter 2017 financial report
Cutting down trees by using a small knife
NESTLE annual report 2017
Oversea business of PBBANK
My investment strategy for upcoming General Election
My investment return for 1st quarter 2018


March 2018:
Human tendency and idolization
AEON 4th quarter 2017 financial report
My investment return for year 2012
PANAMY 3rd quarter 2018 financial report
Diversification VS Focused Investing


February 2018:
NESTLE 4th quarter 2017 financial report
HUPSENG 4th quarter 2018 financial report
F&N 1st quarter 2018 financial report
HARTALEGA 3rd Quarter 2018 Financial Report
How did I explain my investment
ALL IN!!! At shares investment


January 2018:
Important factors of share price rising
OFI 2nd Quarter 2018 Financial Report
Actually I don't like Bonus Issue & Share Split
F&N Annual Report 2017
How I calculated my investment return(ROA & ROE)
My investment return for year 2017
My Twitter : @TheCellist86
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Friday 29 June 2018

我的2018年上半年投资成绩


2018年，
就这样地忙碌地度过了一半。

 今年上半年的投资成绩为ROA=12.7%，ROE=15.3%。

 接下来对比看看2018年头和6个月后的投资组合：

 2018年一开始时，
我的投资组合如下：
1) AEONCR (30%)
2) LPI (22%)
3) NESTLE (15%)
4) PANAMY (12%)
5) PBBANK (6%)
6) F&N (5%)
7) 其他如COCOLAND, DLADY, HARTA, HUPSENG (共10%)

6个月后，
变成了这个样子：
1) AEONCR (25%)
2) LPI (17%)
3) PANAMY (14%)
4) HARTA (10%)
5) NESTLE (8%)
6) PBBANK (7%)
7) F&N (5%)
8) 其他如AEON，COCOLAND，DLADY，HUPSENG (共14%)

 组合里有些公司的巴仙率减少，
主要原因不是套利卖出，
而是因为组合全体扩大了，
以致所占比率下降。

 目前的投资成绩主要是来自于：
AEONCR从RM13.46涨到RM14.40，
F&N从RM27涨到RM39.02,
LPI从RM15.03(红股调整后)涨到RM17.08，
NESTLE从RM103.20涨到RM147.50。

 过去3个月，
我主要加码的公司应该都很明显了吧，
还不清楚的话，
麻烦拿上面的年头和现在的投资组合做对比~

 在这里顺便写下历年的投资成绩：
2011 : ROE = +28.0%
2012 : ROE = +32.8%
2013 : ROE = +15.0%, ROA = +13.3% (开始使用SMF)
2014 : ROE =  -12.0%, ROA =  - 8.0%
2015 : ROE = +21.6%, ROA = +13.3%
2016 : ROE = +38.0%, ROA = +22.2%
2017 : ROE = +40.5%, ROA = +24.9%

 今年的投资口号是“稳中求进”，
“进”是有了，
但却不是觉得很“稳”，
特别是最近看到有两家公司估值不高（跟其他公司比起来），
就想稍微提高风险承受值，
稍微“险中求进”~

 当然，
以上只是我个人的投资计划，
不要乱乱跟，
以免跟着去荷兰~

 毕竟.........

 投资就是自己思考，自己做决定。

 感谢阅读。
注：
身体方面，找到可靠的中医师后，
原本睡4-5小时就会背痛到醒过来的我，
目前已经可以睡6-7个小时才会觉得背痛，
睡眠质量改善不少。

 最重要的，
是膝盖发炎几近康复，
连困扰我多年，几乎每个月都会发作2-3次的偏头痛，
也已经5个星期都没发作了。

 医师看我情况改善很多，
原本一个星期两次的积极疗程，
也减少至一个星期一次，
迟点可能两个星期一次。

 希望能够再次像以前一样，
天天一觉到天亮，
并且毫无疼痛地起身。

 在此感谢大家的关心。


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My investment return for 1st half of 2018


While busying living my life,
1st half of year 2018 already passed by just like that....

 Anyway,
this year my 1st half year return is ROA=12.7%, ROE=15.3%.

 Let's have a comparison between my investment portfolio at the start of year 2018 and now:
When year 2018 first started,
this was my investment portfolio:
1) AEONCR (30%)
2) LPI (22%)
3) NESTLE (15%)
4) PANAMY (12%)
5) PBBANK (6%)
6) F&N (5%)
7) Others: COCOLAND, DLADY, HARTA, HUPSENG (totally 10%)

 After 6 months,
it became like this:
1) AEONCR (25%)
2) LPI (17%)
3) PANAMY (14%)
4) HARTA (10%)
5) NESTLE (8%)
6) PBBANK (7%)
7) F&N (5%)
8) Others: AEON，COCOLAND，DLADY，HUPSENG (totally 14%)

 The percentage of some companies reduced in my portfolio,
the main reason was not that I sold it,
it was just that my investment portfolio had increased,
so eventually those companies weighted less in my portfolio.

 Currently my investment return was mostly contributed by:
AEONCR from RM13.46 to RM14.40，
F&N from RM27 to RM39.02,
LPI from RM15.03(After bonus issue) to RM17.08，
NESTLE from RM103.20 to RM147.50.

 For the past 3 months,
there was a company which I kept on buying.
Which company?
Just compare my before and after portfolio written above.

 Also,
hereby listing down my investment return for the past few years:
2011 : ROE = +28.0%
2012 : ROE = +32.8%
2013 : ROE = +15.0%, ROA = +13.3% (started using SMF)
2014 : ROE =  -12.0%, ROA =  - 8.0%
2015 : ROE = +21.6%, ROA = +13.3%
2016 : ROE = +38.0%, ROA = +22.2%
2017 : ROE = +40.5%, ROA = +24.9%

 This year my slogan is "To Progress while Ensuring Stability",
and yeah there is progress,
but not that stable....

 Especially nowadays I feel like there are two companies which are less expensive.
(Comparing with other companies.)

 I might slightly increase my risk for "To Progress in slightly dangerous environment".

 Anyway,
this is my investment plan,
please don't blindly follow.

 Investment is about doing own thinking, making own decision.

 Thanks for reading.

 PS:
For my body,
after finding a trusted TCM doctor,
originally only slept for 4-5hours then I will wake up due to backache,
now I will only feel back pain after sleeping for 6-7hours,
so a lot of improvements in my sleeping quality.

 Most importantly,
the inflammation on my knees are almost fully recovered,
and migraine which haunted me for many years,
every month I will have headache for 2-3 times,
now already 5 weeks never happened already.

 The doctor saw that I have a lot of improvements,
decided to let me come one per week instead of twice per week,
and might reduce further to once per two weeks.

 Hopefully soon I will be like last time,
everyday able to sleep until sun rise,
and wake up with pain free.

 Thanks everyone for caring about me.


I don't provide any buying/selling suggestion above,
please make your own investment decision and be responsible with it.


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Sunday 24 June 2018

AEONCR 2018年股东大会


今年AEONCR的股东大会在学校假期期间举办，
考虑到太久没去股东大会，
加上学校假期比较不会塞车，
所以我就决定久违了地出席股东大会。

 很遗憾地，
当我到报到处报到时，
door gift已经派完了...........

 他们有要求我留下姓名和电话号码，
希望会有好的补偿吧~

 放上照片一张：

 接下来我会写下一些在股东大会听到的要点，
不过我无法保证100%正确，
毕竟有时听麦克风的声音不是很清楚。

 还有就是这些所谓的“要点”都是从我的角度出发，
不排除有所遗漏，
最好还是自己出席股东大会~

 要点开始：

 1) 信用卡增加了260, 000的用户，增长14%。

 2)分行转型计划取得的成果：

 难怪现在都没有还钱的柜台，
每个人都去AEONCR的ATM machine还钱。

 话说在Mid Valley分行申请信用卡的话，45分钟就能拿到了。
3)今年的计划：

 以前主要客户为B40群，
现在要扩展至M40群以降低风险，
并会研发适合M40群的产品。
今年也会推行E-Wallet和E-Money。

 公司似乎非常看重E-Wallet，
MD甚至抢着亲自解说E-Wallet能够让公司更贴近客户，
之前是消费者-店铺-AEONCR，
有了E-wallet之后，
就是消费者-AEONCR-店铺。

 还有就是E-wallet能够把AEONCR，AEON和AEONBIG的客户群全部整合在一起，
发挥最大的效应，
然后才跟外部合作。

 4)然后是大家都关注的征税问题：

 听证会的日期是7月20日，
公司估计会耗时一到两年。

 公司有信心可以在官司中获胜，（当然要这么说）
但也准备了plan B，
就是公司之前已经为那笔Sales Receivables的利息收入缴了税，
万一那个Sales Receivables真的被法庭裁定为是“卖出而获利，必须缴税。”的话，
那么税收局就必须退还利息收入的税金，
不然就会形成双重征税了。

 有股东担心汇率会影响公司的盈利，
但公司表明说已经fully hedged了。

 然后有股东说公司不是银行，
却需要跟着国家银行规定的最少16% Capital adequacy ratio，
不是很合理。
公司也说一向来都有针对这点向国家银行反应，
接下来也会继续这么做。

 有股东问到公司有份投资的印度业务，
公司说目前仍在亏损阶段，
毕竟那里和东南亚不太一样，
但公司绝对不会放弃印度业务，
因为很有潜力成为庞大的市场。

 以上就是我在股东大会的见闻录，
想要知道更全面性的话，
最好还是自己亲自出席比较好。

 投资就是自己思考，自己做决定。

 感谢阅读。



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AEONCR AGM 2018


The AEONCR AGM was held during school holiday period this year.

 Since I didn't attend AGM for a very long time already,
and currently school holiday period so less cars on the road,
so I decided to attend the AGM.

 Sadly,
when I reached the registration counter,
all the gift bags already finished distributing.........

 I have left my name and phone number with the staffs,
hopefully AEONCR will compensate me with something~

 A picture of the AGM:

I will write down some important points in the AGM at below,
but I can't guarantee that it will be 100% accurate,
since I am not good at catching the voice coming out from a mic.

 Also,
the "important points" are solely based on my own opinion,
so I might miss out certain things,
the best is still attending the AGM by yourselves.

 The important points:

 1) Credit card users grew by 260,000, 14% growth.

2) The result from Transformation:

No wonder nowadays no more counter for payment,
everyone is using ATM machine at the branch to repay money.

 By the way,
we can receive the credit card within 45 minutes if we applied at Mid Valley branch.
3) This year Business Plan:

Last time the customer base is B40,
now expanding into M40 with lower risk,
and more products engineered for M40 will be introduced.

This year will be launching E-wallet and E-money.

 Seems like the E-wallet will be the main focus of AEONCR this year.

 MD explained everything by himself,
E-wallet will enable the company to be closer to the customer.

 Last time is consumer-shop-AEONCR.
After having E-wallet,
it will be consumer-AEONCR-shop.

 Also,
E-wallet will pool the customers of AEONCR, AEON and AEONBIG altogether,
and release its greatest potential of the customers pool,
then will work with other business network.
4) The tax audit:

The hearing date is 20th July,
and the company expected that it might take one to two years.

 The company has confident with the lawsuit,(of course they will say like that)
but plan B is prepared too.

 The company already submitted tax for the interest income from the Sales Receivables,
so if the Sales Receivables really judged by the court as "sold as profit so must submit tax",
then the tax submitted for the interest income of the Sales Receivables must be returned to the company,
if not it will be double taxed.

 There is shareholder worried about the currency exchange rate will affect company profit,
but the management said it was fully hedged.

 Another shareholder complaint that AEONCR is not a bank,
but have to follow the rules set by Bank Negara to have atleast 16% Capital Adequacy Ratio,
which is unfair.
The company responded that they kept trying to reflect it to Bank Negara,
and will continue to do it.

 A shareholder asked about the business at India,
the company said that it is still losing money,
since the business environment is different than here ASEAN,
but the company will not give up India,
because India market has a lot of potentials in it.

 That's all for the important points that I noted down in AGM,
but I still recommend everyone to attend the AGM and listen to what the management said for the most accurate information.

 Investment is about doing own thinking, making own decision.

 Thanks for reading.


I don't provide any buying/selling suggestion above,
please make your own investment decision and be responsible with it.


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Monday 18 June 2018

为了获胜 VS 避免失败 PART2


今天又是回顾以前写过的文章。

 这篇文是我在2012年于Investalks论坛发表过的旧文，
短短的几段话，转贴过来这里，
并加上一些现在的想法。

 除此以外，
这篇文章也可说是之前发表过的《为了获胜 VS 避免失败》的续篇。

 那么.....
旧文开始：
“The Rich play the games to win,
   The Poor play the games not to lose.”

 这句话放在投资上，就一清二楚了。

 有些人投资时只想着不要亏本，
因为有流传着一句话：
“投资的第一原则，就是不要亏钱。第二，就是不要忘记第一个原则。”

 所以，只要找到一些不错的公司，觉得不会让自己亏本的好公司，
就买入然后持有。

 等股价上了个10%、20%，
就欢天喜地地卖出，
没有亏本，还有赚，真好！

 但有些人，
把“投资的第一原则，就是不要亏钱。第二，就是不要忘记第一个原则。”看作是一个起点，而非终点。
首先找到了一些不错的公司，觉得不会让自己亏本的好公司，
但不仅如此，
他们会更深入地去想.....
“是的，这些好公司不会让我亏本，不会输钱。但是，这样就够了吗？”
“就像学校考试一样，有PASS就好，拿个C或B也不错？”
“这样我就满足了吗？”
真正想赢的人，会更深入地探讨公司，
因为他们想知道的，不只是这些公司会不会让自己亏钱，
而是这些公司究竟能不能实现自己的财务目标！！
“我的目标不是要赚个10%、20%就走人，我要赚很多很多的钱！”
“就像学校考试一样，我不只要拿A，我还要拿90分以上，我要拿全校最高分，证明我的数学是全校最厉害的！！”
“那么.......投资在这些公司，能够令我赚很多很多的钱，达到财务自由吗？”
当目标是想赢，而不是不要输时，
你会发现，
你对所投资的公司会要求更多，
你的思考会更深入一层，
你的投资思维会从前一个Level晋升到下一个LEVEL。
你也不会满足于股价只起个10多%就套利，
而是持有一只股到开番、开番、再开番。
但总归一句，没有对或错，
想赢和只是不想输，都是个人的选择。
我选择想赢，我要赢。
旧文结束。
看回6年前的我所写的文章，
当时还真是年少气盛，
什么“我选择想赢，我要赢”.........
现在看回来真的好害羞啊....... >o<

 至于这篇文章，
我并没有什么想更改的，
这几年，
我的投资仍然是为了获胜。

 以前一样，现在也一样。

 各位的投资又是怎样的呢？

 投资就是自己思考，自己做决定。

 感谢阅读。








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TO WIN or NOT TO LOSE part.2


Today I would like to review one of the article that I written before.

 An old article that I wrote at year 2012 and published at Investalks forum,
just a few paragraphs,
but I added some new sentences at the end of the old article.

 Not only that,
this article also kind of representing part2 of previous article <<TO WIN or NOT TO LOSE>>.

 So.....
old article starts here:
“The Rich play the games to win,
   The Poor play the games not to lose.”

 This sentence became very clear if apply it at investment.

 Because of this sentence:
“Rule No.1:Never Lose Money.
Rule No.2: Never forget Rule No.1.”
So when investing,
many people keep focusing on never lose money only.

 Thus,
when they found a quite okay company,
which is hard to make them lose money,
then they just buy and hold the shares.

 After the shares price rose 10%-20%,
and they happily sold it,
didn't lose money and earned more, feels so good~~~

 HOWEVER,
some people took the sentence “Rule No.1:Never Lose Money.
Rule No.2: Never forget Rule No.1.” as their starting point and not ending point.

 First,
they looked for company which is hard to cause them to lose money,
but not only that,
they will think deeper........

 "Yes, this company will most probably able to prevent me from losing money,
but, is it enough?"
"Same like school exam, get C or B also okay, at least a PASS ?"
"Is that enough for me?"

 Those who really INVEST TO WIN,
they will study the company deeper,
because they need to know that not only the company will be able to prevent them from losing money,
but they also want to know that is the company able to help them achieve their financial target!!

 "I don't want to earn only 10%-20%, I wanna earn a lot a lot of money!"
"Just like school exam, I not only want to get an A, I wanna get 90 marks above, I wanna get the highest mark in the school, to prove that I am the best in school!"
"So..... if I invest in this company, will it helps me to earn a lot a lot of money, to achieve financial freedom?"

 When you are targeting TO WIN, and not just NOT TO LOSE,
you will realize that you are looking for more in a company,
your thinking will be much more deeper,
your investing mind will advance into higher level,
you will not satisfy by selling shares just because it rose 10%,
you will hold the shares until the shares price double, then double, then double again.

 Anyway,
there is no right or wrong though.........
TO WIN or NOT TO LOSE,
is all your personal choice.

 And I choose TO WIN.
End of old article.
Looking back this article which I wrote at 6 years ago....
Wow.... I was so confident,
"And I choose TO WIN".........
I feeling so shy now........>o<

 Anyway,
for this article,
I have nothing to change,
all these years,
I still INVEST TO WIN.

 Same for last time, same for now.

 How about you?

 Investment is about doing own thinking, making own decision.

 Thanks for reading.

I don't provide any buying/selling suggestion above,
please make your own investment decision and be responsible with it.
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Wednesday 13 June 2018

COCOLAND 2017年度财政报告


今天就来看看COCOLAND的年报好了。

 首先是过去5年的营业额：

除了2017年，
几乎年年都在进步。

 2017年的问题是：
1)高原料成本
2)马币与美金兑换率的起伏
3)饮料的价格竞争

营业额的下跌主要是受到beverage和hard candies的拖累，
所以是靠gummies在支撑着。

 盈利方面:

 挺起伏不定的............

 毛利方面主要是被高原料成本和人工开支拖累。

此外，
马币兑美元的上涨，
也令公司面对外汇损失。

 公司的宣传费用也比2016年多了33.5%,
好在消费市场里加强品牌。

 ROE看着还挺美的：

股息方面：

 唯一最令人满意的就是股息增加的幅度了~

 目前本地市场仍是公司的主要战场，
贡献了总营业额的44.4%。

海外方面，
韩国、越南和中国市场营业额都有所成长，
但沙乌地阿拉伯和香港却滞进。

 然后公司准备在2018年扩展在印尼市场的足迹：

还有提到公司在去年年尾在网络开始售卖premium product "A' Fresh gummy"....

 网站：
http://www.cocoalandretail.com/

Premium product果然价钱也够premium~

2018年下半年会有新的gummy line启动。

 公司也准备了一笔钱准备升级与扩展现有机器设备：

还有M&A的机会？

2018年的成长就靠gummy products了~

 放眼望去，
COCOLAND未来就靠Gummy products了，
虽然Gummy products能够继续成长，
但Beverage和Hard candies的下滑却会一直拖累下去。

 有好的消息，就有坏的消息。

 之后COCOLAND的2018年第一季度财政报告也出炉了：

 非常中规中矩的业绩。

 季报上管理层的发言不外乎就是成本上涨和兑换率损失等因素，
每次都差不多一样，
就不详细写在这里。

 有兴趣的，
欢迎大家亲自去看看季报。

 投资就是自己思考，自己做决定。

 感谢阅读。






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COCOLAND Annual Report 2017


Today let's have a look at COCOLAND annual report 2017.

 First,
the revenues for the past 5 years:

Basically the revenue improved for every year except 2017...

 The problems during year 2017:
1) High raw material costs
2) Volatile USD/MYR foreign exchange rates
3) Beverage price war

The lower revenue was dragged down by beverage and hard candies,
and mainly supported by gummies.

 As for profit:

Up and down.........

 The lower gross profit was caused by higher material costs and production labour costs.

Also,
the strenghtening of RM against USD caused foreign exchange losses.

 The product exhibition and promotion expenses increased for 33.5% comparing with year 2016,
caused the profit to drop a lot.

 Anyway,
the ROE still looked quite nice though:

Dividends:

I supposed the growth of dividends should be satisfying for the shareholders~

 Currently,
Malaysia still remained as the main market by contributing 44.4% of total revenue.

For overseas market,
there were revenue growth at South Korea, Vietnam and China.
However,
the laggards were Saudi Arabia and Hong Kong.

 Also,
the company expects to expand its footprints in Indonesia:

The company also started to sell through online and launched a premium product "A' Fresh gummy"...

 The website:
http://www.cocoalandretail.com/

Premium price for premium products~

A new gummy line expects to commence at second half of 2018.

 The company also projected some capitals for acquisition of plant and machinery and factory equipment:

Oh?
M&A opportunities!?

Seems like the growth at year 2018 will be largely depending on gummy products~

 Guess the future of COCOLAND will be on Gummy products already,
even though the Gummy products able to continue to grow,
but Beverage and Hard candies still a downside for the company.......

 There is something good,
there is something bad too.

 The 1st quarter financial result of COCOLAND came out not long after releasing the annual report:

 OKAY result only...

 The management commented on rising labour cost and foreign exchange losses,
some commonly seen reasons of profit dropping,
so I will not write the details here.

 If you are interested to know,
please go to read the 1st quarter report.

 Investment is about doing own thinking, making own decision.

 Thanks for reading.

I don't provide any buying/selling suggestion above,
please make your own investment decision and be responsible with it.


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