Friday, 31 May 2019

2019年1月~5月文章目录

每个月的最后一天都会做个目录，方便自己也方便大家~


2019年5月：
从股票投资中获得影子收入
我的2016年投资成绩
HARTALEGA最新季度财政报告
AEONCR最新季度财政报告
我的2015年投资成绩


2019年4月：
HUPSENG最新年度财政报告
我的投资理论之一--大便论
TOPGLOV最新季度财政报告


2019年3月：
我的2019年第1季度投资回酬
AEON最新季度财政报告
HARTALEGA最新季度财政报告


2019年1月：
AEONCR最新季度财报
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List of articles of January~May 2019

I will make a list of articles every last day of the month,
so that is easier for me and for everyone to refer~
May 2019:
The PHANTOM INCOME from shares investment
My investment return for year 2016
HARTALEGA latest financial report
AEONCR latest quarter financial report
My investment return for year 2015


April 2019:
HUPSENG latest annual report
One of my investing theorem--"The SHIT Theorem"
TOPGLOV latest quarter financial report


March 2019:
My investment return for 1st quarter 2019
AEON latest quarter financial report
HARTALEGA latest quarter financial report


January 2019:
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Wednesday, 29 May 2019

从股票投资中获得影子收入


声明：本篇文章会大量提到借贷投资，如果你对债务极度反感，请速速关闭此页。
话说我在2018年5月时写过一篇文章，
题目是《一个大家都忽略了的买股成本》，
可惜看不明白的读者很多，
也令我一直耿耿于怀。

 当时写那篇文的灵感是来自于Robert Kiyosaki的著作《WHY THE RICH ARE GETTING RICHER》，
最近在飞机上闲着没事做，
总算正式把书看完，
就想再重新写好以前那篇文章。

 在Robert Kiyosaki的书里是用房产投资来作例子，
然后大量提到"DEBT & TAX"。

 在这里我就用股票投资来作例子，
所谓的DEBT就是SMF账户(Shares Margin Financing)，
也就是俗称的借贷投资股票。

 例子方面，
我就拿自己的NESTLE好了，
毕竟如今股价是RM146左右，
凑个整数就是RM150，
方便计算。

 谨记，
以下的计算都是极度简化版本，
如果想要更详细的话，
请询问有处理SMF账户的银行家。

 我个人总结从股票投资中获得影子收入的方法有3个。
第一个：

 先说没有SMF账户的人，
如果要买1 lot的NESTLE投资，
那么就是100xRM150 = RM15,000。
(假设股价是RM150以方便计算)

 那么如果那个人的收入是RM15,000，
是否能买进1 lot的NESTLE呢？

 如果那个人真的那么做，
那么政府应该很快就会派人找上门来，
因为那个人没缴交所得税！

 假设所得税是25%，
那么那个人的实际收入只有0.75xRM15000 = RM12500，
那么请问还能买得起1 lot的NESTLE吗？

 答案肯定是不能！

 那么其实要赚多少钱才能买得起NESTLE呢？

 答案是RM20,000!
因为0.75xRM20,000 = RM15,000。

 也就是说要赚RM20,000，
缴交RM5,000的所得税后，
剩下的RM15,000才能买NESTLE。

 总结来说，
NESTLE的成本价其实是RM20,000!

 这也是我在以前文章所提过的，
一个每个人都忽略了的投资成本。

 但如果拥有SMF就不一样，
我直接借贷RM15,000买进NESTLE就可以了。

 也就是说，
我不需要去赚个RM20,000，
也不需要缴交买NESTLE的钱的所得税。

 用现金买进NESTLE的成本是RM20,000，
用借贷买进NESLTE的成本则是RM15,000。

 这当中省下来的RM5,000和时间，
也就是所谓的“影子收入”。
第二点，

 以前NESTLE股价是RM50时，
用现金买入后，
如今涨到RM150，
但如果要利用那赚到的钱来进行其他投资，
唯一的方法就是卖掉NESTLE。

 但拥有SMF账户就不一样了，
NESTLE涨到RM150后，
我的借贷比例就下降很多，
那么接下来我就可以从SMF账户中提取现钱来进行别的投资，
或者直接买进更多股票投资。

 既能保住现有的资产收入，
又能投资更多的资产以获得更多收入，
这就是所谓的“影子收入”。
第三点，

 当时NESTLE股价是RM50，
如果用现金买入10 lot的NESTLE，
每年可以得到RM2000左右的股息。

 那么要再买多1 lot的NESTLE，
也就需要RM5000，
差不多要收两到三年的股息。

 但问题来了，
两到三年后NESTLE的股价都接近RM70了，
还是买不起。

 可能你会说股息每年都起，
但股息起的多，
股价也肯定会跟着起很多，
还是一样。

 但用SMF账户借贷来买进那1 lot的NESTLE就不一样了，
可以趁股价还是RM50时就借贷买进，
收两到三年后的股息就能还清借贷，
还能拥有多1 lot股价接近RM70的NESTLE，
这也是一种“影子收入”。
以上说了这么多，
但我并不鼓励大家直接去申请SMF账户来借贷买股票，
就像Robert Kiyosaki也不希望人人看完他的书就盲目地买进房产投资。

 最重要的，
是有没有足够的财务知识来投资。

 财务知识并非只是学学经济理论或平衡账目而已，
真正的财务知识还牵涉到其他更方面，
要不然世上最富有的都是经济学家和会计学家了。

 感谢阅读。



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The PHANTOM INCOME from Shares Investment


CAUTIOUS : I will talk about borrowing money for investment in this article, so if DEBT is your number ONE enemy, please read no further and just close this article.
At May year 2018,
I wrote an article with the title <<The cost of investment is much higher than we thought>>,
sadly that a lot of people didn't understand what I wanted to mention in that article.

 I gotten the idea for that article while I was reading a book with the title of <<WHY THE RICH ARE GETTING RICHER>> by author Robert Kiyosaki,
recently I finished reading the whole book while on the plane,
so I decided to re-write the article.

 Robert Kiyosaki used examples of property investment in his book,
and mentioned a lot of "DEBT & TAX".

 At here I will use shares investment as example,
and the DEBT is SMF account (Shares Margin Financing Account),
basically is borrowing money to invest at shares.

 I will use NESTLE as example since the shares price is around RM146,
so we can just assume it to be RM150 for easier calculation.

 Please be reminded that,
the calculation below are all simplified,
if you want to know more details,
please ask the banker who in-charge of SMF account.
BASICALLY,
there are 3 types of PHANTOM INCOME that we can obtain from shares investment.
1ST,

 For someone without SMF account,
if the person wishes to buy 1 lot of NESTLE,
then is 100xRM150 = RM15,000.
(Assuming shares price is RM150 for easier calculation.)

 If that person earned RM15,000,
will that person be able to buy 1 lot of NESTLE?

 If that person really did it,
then government staff will come and find that person,
since that person didn't submit the income tax!!!

 Let's say the income tax bracket is 25%,
then the actual income of that person will be just 0.75xRM15000 = RM12,500 only.
Will that person still able to buy 1 lot of NESTLE?

 OF COURSE NO!!!

 So how much that person should earn to be able to buy NESTLE?

 Then answer is RM20,000.
since 0.75xRM20000 = RM15,000.

 So that person need to earn RM20,000,
submit RM5,000 for income tax,
then only can invest at NESTLE with the remaining RM15,000.

 As a conclusion,
the cost of NESTLE is actually RM20,000!

 This is also the thing I tried to mention in my old article,
the cost that everyone didn't think about it.

 With SMF,
then things will be different,
since I can just borrow RM15,000 to buy 1 lot of NESTLE.

 In another words,
I don't need to earn RM20,000,
then don't need to submit income tax of RM5,000 just to own 1 lot of NESTLE.

 The cost of investing at NESTLE with cash is RM20,000,
but the cost of investing at NESTLE with debt is just RM15,000.

 The RM5,000 and the time I saved,
are all the PHANTOM INCOME.
2ND,

 If last time we bought NESTLE at RM50 with cash,
currently almost RM150,
but the only way to use that money we earned for other investment,
is to sell it.

 But things will be different if using SMF,
after NESTLE rose to RM150,
then my debt ratio decreased a lot,
thus I can withdraw some money from SMF account for other investment,
or buy more shares.

 I am able to make sure that I keep my current asset without selling it,
then I can invest at more assets for more income,
thus this is another type of PHANTOM INCOME.
3RD,

 When shares price of  NESTLE was RM50 last time,
if we buy 10 lot with cash,
then every year we will receive RM2000 as dividend.

 Thus in order to buy 1 more lot of NESTLE,
we need RM5000,
so we need to collect dividend for the next 2-3 years.

 HOWEVER,
after 2-3 years the shares price of NESTLE already around RM70,
can't buy it with just RM5000....

 Maybe you will say that the dividend will increase every year,
but don't forget that if the dividend increase,
the shares price will increase too.

 Is different if we use SMF account since we don't have to wait another 2-3years and we can just borrow money to buy that 1 lot of NESTLE,
after collecting dividend for 2-3 years,
we not only can pay off the debt,
but we also own 1 more lot of NESTLE which the shares price is around RM70,
thus this is another type of PHANTOM INCOME.
That's all I wanted to share today,
but even though I mentioned about DEBT a lot,
I do not encourage everyone to straight away apply a SMF account and borrow money to buy shares,
same like Robert Kiyosaki also doesn't want all his readers to straight away borrow money and invest at property blindly.

 The most important thing is,
do we have the sufficient financial education to help us in investment?

 Also,
financial education is not about learning some economic theories or learning how to balance a checkbook,
the REAL FINANCIAL EDUCATION involve a lot of other aspects too,
if not the richest man in the world should be economist or accountant already.

 Thanks for reading.


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Wednesday, 22 May 2019

我的2016年投资成绩


这个部落格，
不只是用来记录和写下现在的一切，
也是用来回顾我过去的投资，
所以今天就来写下我以前2016年的投资成绩，
也是我迈入投资的第6年。

 我在2016年1月1日的投资组合：
1)AEON
2)AEONCR
3)DLADY
4)NESTLE
5)PANAMY
6)PBBANK
7)LPI

 而我在2016年12月31日的投资组合：
1) NESTLE (29%)
2) AEONCR (23%)
3) PANAMY (19%)
4) LPI (19%)
5) PBBANK (6%)
6) DLADY (4%)

当年的回酬：ROA=22.2%， ROE=38.0%。

当年的回酬，
主要归功于AEONCR从RM11.90涨到RM14.36，
DLADY从RM47.76涨到RM55.56，
以及PANAMY从RM24.28涨到RM30.68。

当年的回酬还算不错，
并且通过SMF，
将回酬放大至38%，
算是比较有成效的一年。

当年我累积了很多的NESTLE，
只可惜我在股价接近RM100之前就卖出了大部分，
以现在的RM140以上股价看起来，
我真的蠢得可以..........

当年我在RM2.70出清最后一批的AEON股票，
以现在RM1.40-RM1.50的股价看来，
似乎是个正确的决定。

写到这里，
我也总算把过去每年的投资成绩都写了出来。

我也做个了目录，
好奇的可以去看看：

当然，
过去的投资成绩都只能算是一种参考，
并不能保证说我接下来都会有这种成绩，
所以不要乱乱跟我的风。

投资就是自己思考，自己做决定。

感谢阅读。






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My investment return for year 2016


This blog is not only for writing and recording down what is happening now,
but also to review my past investment,
so today I will write down my investment return of year 2016,
which was the 6th year I started to invest.

 My investment portfolio at 1st January 2016:
1)AEON
2)AEONCR
3)DLADY
4)NESTLE
5)PANAMY
6)PBBANK
7)LPI
My investment portfolio at 31st December 2016:
1) NESTLE (29%)
2) AEONCR (23%)
3) PANAMY (19%)
4) LPI (19%)
5) PBBANK (6%)
6) DLADY (4%)

 My investment return for year 2016: ROA=22.2%, ROE=38.0%.

 The return mainly contributed by DLADY which rose from RM47.76 to RM55.56,
PANAMY from RM24.28 to RM30.68,
and AEONCR from RM11.90 to RM14.36.

 My investment result was not bad,
and I was able to magnify it until 38% through SMF,
it was quite a fruitful year for me.

 I also accumulated a lot of NESTLE shares that year,
sadly that I sold most of it when the shares price gotten near to RM100,
looking at the shares price now which is above RM140.............
I AM IDIOT............

 I also sold the last batch of my AEON shares at the price of RM2.70 that year,
looking at the shares price now which is between RM1.40 to RM1.50,
I guess I made a good choice?

 Until today,
I finally finished writing my investment return for all the past years.

 I made a list of it,
feel free to have a read if you are curious:
https://thecellist-investment.blogspot.com/p/my.html


OF COURSE,
my past investment result is just a reference,
it doesn't guarantee me that I will be able to obtain the same result at the future,
so please don't follow my investment blindly.

Investment is about doing own thinking, making own decision.


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Wednesday, 15 May 2019

HARTALEGA最新季度财政报告


关于HARTALEGA最新出炉的季度财政报告，
由于业绩挺震撼的，
所以一堆人都写了分析文。

 如果你已经看了很多的分析文，
那么你不需要花时间再读下去了，
反正季度报告那么薄，
重点就那几个，
我写的肯定重复。

 尽管如此，
我还是坚持要写一份属于自己的，
原因嘛..........
方便以后要看回时容易找啊~

 话说当时季度报告一出炉后，
我就立刻点击来看，
看到营业额时挺兴奋的：

但越往下看兴奋的感觉就越消失，
甚至失落了起来.............

 接下来就赶紧去看管理层有什么解释：
就像一堆分析文里所指出的，
因为令吉兑美元的突然上涨，
导致公司措手不及，
无法及时把成本转嫁给客户。

 但最近Average selling price竞争惨不忍睹，
公司又能转嫁多少成本给客户呢？
综合全年来看的话，
营业额增加17.6%，
sales volume增加10.1%。

 其实看整年业绩是还好的.......

 目前Plant 5的12条生产线已经开跑10条：

 AMG方面还在等着FDA的批准：
等啊等..........
不知不觉就又等了一年..............

 公司也承认产量增长超过了需求的增长：


 公司的3个乐观因素：
1) 持续增长的手套需求
2) NGC的扩展
3) AMG的潜在成长。

 最后是人见人爱的股息：
这次每股只有1.9sen.....

 公司股票目前的价格是RM5左右，
从最高峰的RM7多到现在的RM5........
究竟是危？还是机呢？

 投资就是自己思考，自己做决定。

 感谢阅读。

 2018年文章目录
2017年文章目录
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HARTALEGA latest financial report


Since the latest financial result of HARTALEGA was quite shocking,
so a lot of people wrote analysis about it.

 THUS,
if you already read a lot of the analysis article about HARTALEGA lately,
then you don't need to waste your time to continue reading this.

 Since the quarter report only contained a few main points,
what I will be writing here definitely covered by other people too.

 Anyhow,
I still insist to write one myself.

 The reason??
It will be easier for me to find it back at the future,
better than being clueless and searching it anywhere.

 ANYWAY,
when the financial result was released,
I was very excited to look at the revenue:

But my excitement quickly faded away when I kept reading it.......................

 Here is the review by the management:
Just like all the other analysis articles pointed out,
since the sharp strengthening of ringgit happened in a short time,
so the Group was unable to pass the cost increase to the customers.

 I just wondering.......................
With the current situation of every glove company lowering down the ASP,
how much cost can HARTALEGA pass to customers??
If looking at the full 12 months,
the revenue grew by 17.6% and the sales volume increased by 10.1%.

 Seems good though.................

 Currently,
10 out of 12 production lines in Plant 5 has commissioned:

As for AMG,
still waiting for approval from FDA:
Another year has passed while waiting.........................

 The management also admitted that the capacity growth is ahead of demand growth:


 The 3 main reasons of HARTALEGA remaining optimistic:
1) Growing demand for gloves.
2) NGC expansion
3) Potential growth of AMG.

 Lastly,
the lovely dividend:
This time only 1.9sen per share...........

 The current shares price is around RM5,
the peak last time was RM7 something..........
For now is it a chance?? Or a trap??

 Investment is about doing own thinking, making own decision.

 Thanks for reading.
I don't provide any buying/selling suggestion above,
please make your own investment decision and be responsible with it.

List of articles of year 2018

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Wednesday, 8 May 2019

AEONCR最新季度财政报告


今天来看一看AEONCR最新出炉的季度财政报告。

 特别是季报出炉后，
股价应声下跌，
所以更是值得一看：

嗯.....
业绩都挺漂亮的，
可是往下一看：

EPS少了................

 没办法，
因为过去一年太多人把ICULS换成母股：
股数足足多了大约25%，
盈利只进步了约18%，
那么EPS自然就少了。

 接下来看看管理层的发言：
简单地说，
生意量越做越大，
然后NPL从去年的2.33%降至2.04%。

 总的来说，
今年营业额增长10.6%，
盈利增长18.5%:
最后公司还说有信心维持业绩表现。

 还有就是公司所面对的官司：
果然打官司就是长期的抗战........

 最后当然是人见人爱的股息：

 这一次派出22.35sen，
比起去年的20sen，
算是有不错的增加了。

 以上就是这次AEONCR最新季报的简单分享，
想知道更详细的话，
欢迎自己去BURSA网站下载一份细读。

 总的来说，
AEONCR连年成长，
PE也不算是很高，
看起来似乎物有所值。

 但是............
缠绕着AEONCR的官司，
以及市场一直不给脸，
只肯给AEONCR低PE估值，
都是不利的因素。

 投资就是自己思考，自己做决定。

 感谢阅读。

 2018年文章目录
2017年文章目录





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AEONCR latest quarter financial report


Today let's have a look at AEONCR latest quarter financial report.

 Since the shares price of AEONCR dropped right after the release of the report,
so it is worthy to take a look:

Hmmm.....
The result looked quite good,
but:

EPS decreased...............

 No choice,
too many people transferred ICULS to mother shares last year:

The amount of shares increased by around 25%,
where the profit only grew by 18%,
of course the EPS will drop.

 Let's see the review by management:

Basically,
the business still growing,
and NPL reduced from 2.04% to 2.33%.

 Overall comparing with last year,
the revenue grew by 10.6%,
while the profit gew by 18.5%.
The management expects to be able to maintain the financial performance for this year.

 Also,
the lawsuit:
Lawsuit always a long term battle.................

 Lastly,
the lovely dividend:

This time is 22.35 sen per share,
can be considered as good since last year was 20sen per share.

 That's all for my simple review about AEONCR quarter report,
if you want to read the details,
feel free to download one from the BURSA website.

 Frankly speaking,
AEONCR kept growing every year,
and with a not so high PE,
seems like is worthy to invest.

 HOWEVER................
The lawsuit facing by AEONCR,
and the market don't want to give face,
only appraised AEONCR a low PE,
are some negative factors to be considered too.

 Investment is about doing own thinking, making own decision.

 Thanks for reading.
I don't provide any buying/selling suggestion above,
please make your own investment decision and be responsible with it.

List of articles of year 2018

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